Software Estimation Without Guessing (PragProg)

Developers hate estimation, and most managers fear disappointment with the results, but there is hope for both. Let go of the notion that “an estimate is an estimate,” and estimate for your particular need. Realize that estimates have a limited shelf-life, and re-estimate frequently as needed.

George Dinwiddie @gdinwiddie

edited by Adaobi Obi Tulton @aotulton

Developers hate estimation, and most managers fear disappointment with the results, but there is hope for both. Let go of the notion that “an estimate is an estimate,” and estimate for your particular need. Realize that estimates have a limited shelf-life, and re-estimate frequently as needed.

Learn strategies for effective decomposition of work and aspects of the work that likely affect your estimates. Hedge your bets by comparing the results of different approaches. Estimate in comparison to past experience, by modeling the work mathematically, or a hybrid of both. Discover what to do when an estimate proves wrong. Find out how to recover and how to use that knowledge for future planning.

When reality differs from your estimate, don’t lament; mine that disappointment for the gold that can be the longer-term jackpot.


"An easy read on why, when, how, and how not to estimate, with pragmatic advice both for the art of estimation itself and for handling the human behaviors that invariably surround it.”

Liz Keogh, Director, Lunivore Limited


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