Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition.
Decisions about how and when to decarbonize the global energy system are highly influenced
by estimates of the likely cost. Here, we generate empirically validated probabilistic
forecasts of energy technology costs and use these to estimate future energy system
costs under three scenarios. Compared to continuing with a fossil fuel-based system,
a rapid green energy transition is likely to result in trillions of net savings, even
without accounting for climate damages or climate policy co-benefits.
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