GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models.
We investigate the potential implications of Generative Pre-trained
Transformer (GPT) models and related technologies on the U.S. labor market.
Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their correspondence with
GPT capabilities, incorporating both human expertise and classifications from
GPT-4. Our findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could
have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs,
while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The
influence spans all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing
greater exposure. Notably, the impact is not limited to industries with higher
recent productivity growth. We conclude that Generative Pre-trained
Transformers exhibit characteristics of general-purpose technologies (GPTs),
suggesting that as these models could have notable economic, social, and policy
implications.
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