10-20 years out is a long long guess. Small pool of results so far but I was a bit surprised that although being pretty skeptical about the claims I tended to think they are more useful in the near term and less useful in the long term. I have pretty deep concerns about the ability for these things to learn or keep up with improvements with the current level of usefulness already resulting in a deluge of slop being the learning pool of future training of statistical models. The long term feels to me like it needs another paradigm breakthrough in the order of the current LLM hype to even keep these things as useful as they were before people started using them.
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